The Sahel crisis and implications for India

Despite being rich in natural resources, the Sahel region of Africa remains mired in extreme poverty, political instability and warfare. What are the broader implications of military coups for regional and global stability, and more specifically, for India?

The Sahel region of Africa possesses vast energy and mineral resources, but the majority of its population remains enmeshed in extreme poverty, famine, political instability and warfare. In the last two years, there have been military coups in Niger, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad.

But why has the abundance of energy and mineral resources in the Sahel failed to translate into economic and social development and political stability? What are the broader implications of military coups for regional and global stability, and more specifically, for India? Before exploring such questions, let’s first have an understanding of the Sahel region. 

The Sahel is a region in western and north-central Africa that extends eastward from Senegal to Sudan, forming a transitional zone between the arid Sahara Desert to the north and humid Savannas to the south. As per the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS), the region has ten countries, i.e. Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria. 

With its abundance of energy and mineral resources, including uranium, gold, and oil, the Sahel is one of the world’s most endowed regions. For instance, Mali is Africa’s third-largest gold producer, and Burkina Faso is the fourth-largest and fastest-growing producer of gold in the African Continent, and Niger is the world’s leading source of uranium.

In addition to being Africa’s third-largest gold producer, Mali is rich in natural resources. It has about 800 tons of gold deposits, 2 million tons of iron ore, 5,000 tons of uranium, 20 million tons of manganese, 4 million tons of lithium, and 10 million tons of limestone. Despite this, Mali ranked 188th out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI) in the 2023-2024 Human Development Report.

Niger accounts for about 5 per cent of global uranium output, making the African nation one of the world’s biggest producers of a crucial raw material in the generation of nuclear power. Niger began operating its first commercial uranium mine in 1971 and presently has two significant mines, producing Africa’s highest-grade uranium ores. Apart from uranium, the country also possesses vital resources, including coal, gold, gypsum, and oil. However, despite its vast natural resource reserves, Niger, like Mali, ranked 189th on the HDI.

Burkina Faso is the fourth-largest and the fastest-growing producer of gold in Africa, forming the backbone of its trading economy. In addition to gold, the country possesses other natural resources like zinc, lead, copper, iron, manganese, cassiterite (a tin ore), and phosphate. Despite its resource wealth, Burkina Faso ranked 185th on the HDI.

A number of factors contribute to the plight of people in the Sahel region including weak state institutions, military coups, and external exploitation of its resources.

The inability of civilian governments to effectively control large swaths of territory, popular frustration with the deteriorating security situation, and the lack of economic and social progress are some of the major factors that contributed to military takeovers in the region. 

In recent years, there have been military coups in Mali (2020 and 2021), Niger (2023), Burkina Faso (2022), Guinea (2021), and Chad (2021).

While military leaders claim that their interventions were driven by a sincere desire to bring stability, improve living standards, and end corruption, their true motivations are more likely linked to the pursuit of power and privilege. Moreover, the rivalry among global powers in this unstable area has been the primary reason behind the political instability. 

Developmental struggle is another factor contributing to the challenges of the Sahel. On the HDI, the countries of the region are in the bottom ten. In response to the crisis in Mali, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 2056, which led to the creation of UNISS in 2013. The strategy focuses on six critical areas: cross-border cooperation, prevention and sustaining peace, economic revitalisation and inclusive growth, climate action, renewable energy, and women and youth empowerment.

The six objectives of UNISS were intended to contribute to achieving both the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. However, the recent spate of military coups—including in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has revealed the failure of the policies of both the United States and the European Union in addressing the region’s root causes of instability.

On January 28, 2024, the military leaders of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). They established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as a confederation. In September 2024, the three military junta leaders unveiled the idea of having a common passport to facilitate and harmonise travel identity for their people. In response, the ECOWAS recently lifted the economic sanctions it had imposed after the coups, acknowledging that these measures had been ineffective in reversing the political changes.

International reactions to the coups in the Sahel draw attention to regional and international competition among major powers. For instance, the Sahara-Sahel region has emerged as a new geopolitical hotspot, driven by a mix of weak states, interfering global powers, and transnational non-state actors. For much of modern history, the region has been France-centric, with French forces frequently intervening to control and influence regional security. 

The people of the Sahel continue to suffer and live in abject poverty and deprivation because their leaders, along with their former colonial power, continued to exploit them. For instance, Niger was providing France with the majority of its uranium at a fraction of its market value. According to some reports, France paid only 0.80 euros per kg, while the market price at the time of the coup was 153.77 euros. 

However, France’s aggressive intervention in 2013, encountered substantial resistance from local non-state actors and widespread resentment. This provided other external powers like Russia with an opportunity to challenge France’s dominance. Russia’s foothold in Libya, where it swiftly consolidated power through private military groups like Wagner Group contractors, enabled it to position itself as an alternative security provider and expand its presence into Mali and Burkina Faso – countries that had grown disillusioned with France’s military presence.

The failure of French foreign policy in the region has resulted in a power rivalry between France and Russia. The NATO intervention in Libya led to a surge in trans-Saharan terrorism and crime, created new security challenges, and turned the Sahel into a geopolitical flashpoint. This failure of NATO provided Russia with an opportunity to fill the void. Recently, Russia has revamped and reactivated its military presence in Africa, primarily through the use of Wagner Group’s assets and troops.

Reliance on security-focused international dependence has failed to address the root causes of violence, poverty, and instability in the Sahel, condemning the region to long-term turmoil. In particular, the failure of the French efforts, which were largely focused on countering jihadism through militarisation and retaining its status as the dominant external player in Africa, has been detrimental.

As a result, the Russian Wagner Group was able to increase its presence in the Sahel, capitalising on local dissatisfaction with the West. These conditions are likely to persist as long as the major external powers believe that the Sahel is an ungoverned space in need of foreign intervention and control. 

The international community’s role should focus on strengthening state institutions rather than prioritising self-serving resource extraction and security/military objectives. It should also support Sahelian governments in a way that avoids creating perpetual external dependence, which only facilitates the continued exploitation of the region’s natural resources.

There are significant ramifications for India. As the global order teeters on the brink of upheaval and conflicts, the Sahel serves as a prime example of a geopolitical hotspot that could escalate tensions, potentially leading to a larger east-west conflict. The resulting upheaval would have a negative impact on India’s socio-political ambitions of becoming a global powerhouse and enhancing its economy. Moreover, India depends on critical resources such as oil, gas, and uranium from the Sahel and its surroundings. Therefore, India needs to engage meaningfully in efforts to stabilise the region.